Pack Manufacturers: Rapid Growth in Commercial EV Markets

 

 

As automotive OEMs have shifted towards in-house battery pack production to reduce costs, the market for turnkey battery pack assemblers is increasingly limited to lower-volume vehicle segments, including commercial vehicles and off-highway machines. However, these segments still offer significant opportunities, due to higher battery prices and larger battery packs, compared to electric cars. Commercial electric vehicles are expected to experience rapid growth in the next decade, due to low battery prices, higher range and favorable total cost of ownership (TCO). IDTechEx provides a fully segmented forecast of the electric vehicle (EV) battery market in its most recent report "Li-ion Batteries and Battery Management Systems for Electric Vehicles 2026-2036", which also forecasts that battery demand in non-car EV segments will see over 4-fold growth over the next decade.

 

 

Commercial vehicles have seen rapid growth over the last few years, due to low battery prices and better electric vehicle performance. Buses saw rapid deployment in the 2010s in China before a fall in annual sales, however sales have been climbing more recently due to bus sales in Europe and the US. Meanwhile, electric trucks have seen rapid growth in the last year, especially in China, and are expected to continue to be the fastest growing electric vehicle segment in the next decade, according to IDTechEx's analysis. Batteries for commercial vehicles can be more than twice the size and price (in terms of US$/kWh) compared to batteries for passenger cars, presenting a significant and growing market for battery pack developers. IDTechEx predicts that non-car EV segments will reach more than US$90 billion in value by 2036.

 

 

 

Commercial vehicle batteries have been predominantly regionally split in the past, with the Chinese market being dominated by LFP and European/North American markets primarily using NMC/NCA. However, in the last few years, IDTechEx's analysis has indicated a shift in the European and North American markets, with many players developing LFP options alongside NMC/NCA. This is due to LFP offering lower costs and longer cycle life, which can be important for e.g. medium-duty commercial applications and buses.

 

 

 

 

IDTechEx conducted an in-depth analysis and benchmarking of turnkey battery pack offerings in the European and North American markets.

 

Energy density has been trending up, with typical pack-level energy densities for turnkey packs lying between 130-200 Wh/kg and 150-300 Wh/L across both LFP and NMC chemistries. In terms of cycle life, typical turnkey packs offered between 3000-10000 cycles, which is consistent with the minimum standard of 3000 cycles for commercial applications. This indicates utilization of lower nickel content in NMC batteries for commercial applications compared to passenger cars (which have lower cycle life requirements due to shorter duty cycles and less frequent charge-discharge cycles).

 

 

In terms of C rate, LFP and NMC are again similar, offering between 0.5-2C typically. LTO anode batteries, which made up a minority of packs, offered a cycle life of 20,000 cycles and C rate of 8-10 C, but with much more limited energy density (<60 Wh/kg) and at higher cost. IDTechEx anticipates LTO batteries to be used in a few niches in which higher power output and cycle life is more important, e.g. in some off-highway applications in mining and construction.

 

 

 

In the past, cylindrical cells were the most popular choice in turnkey packs, however prismatic cells have become more dominant in the last few years. This is likely due to the rise of popularity in LFP, which predominantly uses prismatic form factor cells to provide higher volumetric energy density. In terms of thermal management, battery pack assemblers have largely moved away from air cooling except in very specific niches. This is due to the inability of air cooling to prevent overheating in large battery packs, which are common in commercial applications. Liquid cooling systems are dominant in the market, specifically using water/glycol cooling liquids.

 

 

The market for lithium-ion batteries in non-car EV segments is set to grow significantly over the next decade, with battery demand increasing by more than 4-fold and the market value reaching more than US$90 billion. This growth will be driven by improvements to battery pack performance and lower cell costs, allowing for batteries to compete with traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. A diverse array of chemistries will see success outside of cars, providing opportunities for many players in the space.

 

 

For a deeper analysis of turnkey battery packs, including analysis of packs produced by specific players, as well as benchmarking of Li-ion cells, battery management system patent analysis, regulation analysis, supply chain trends and granular 10-year market forecasts, see the recent report by IDTechEx "Li-ion Batteries and Battery Management Systems for Electric Vehicles 2026-2036".

 

For more information on this report, including downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/EVLithium. You can see the full portfolio of battery and electric vehicle research from IDTechEx at www.IDTechEx.com .